Climate crisis revives Soviet hydro plan in Central Asia

By Bogorpedia February 26, 2025 Post a Comment

Central Asian countries are putting aside their rivalries to build a massive hydroelectric plant originally planned during the Soviet era, in an effort to improve their energy and food security and counter the effects of climate change.

The Kambar-Ata-1 project on the Naryn River in Kyrgyzstan is a relatively isolated instance of regional cooperation that does not involve the two neighboring superpowers, Russia and China.

The plant is "very important for Central Asia", Kyrgyz Energy Minister Taalaibek Ibrayev stated during a visit to the future site, which was attended by AFP.

At a trilateral meeting with Kyrgyzstan, a few days later, the Kazakh and Uzbek governments stated that the project would "bring great advantages for the region" and "ensure the long-term stability and development of Central Asia".

The previously unimaginable words highlight how water and energy shortages are bringing rivals closer together.

Before the project can begin, backers must secure investors who are willing to invest at least $3.5 billion.

'Wealth of potential'

The economic collapse and corruption following the Soviet collapse, combined with regional conflicts, brought an end to massive energy projects in Central Asia, including the Kambar-Ata project, which was initially planned in 1986.

"The collapse of the Soviet Union severed water and energy ties," said Rasul Umbetaliyev, a Kyrgyz energy expert.

Since the Soviet period, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are expected to receive some electricity from their regional neighbors Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan in exchange for a share of their abundant water resources.

The various countries have accused each other of not respecting the agreed-upon arrangement.

Umbetaliyev stated that Kambar-Ata-1 is "very important" for both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, which require a large amount of water stored by the plant during the summer season.

The plant would enable Kyrgyzstan to export electricity to neighboring countries, and even to Afghanistan and Pakistan under a project called CASA-1000.

The World Bank notes that Kyrgyzstan's mountainous landscape has a considerable amount of hydropower potential, with only a small fraction, less than one-fifth, being currently utilized.

It is predicted that the Kambar-Ata project will generate 5.6 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electricity, which will be sufficient to offset Kyrgyzstan's current electricity shortage of approximately 3.9 billion kWh.

The deficit is increasing due to water shortages that result in hydroelectric power plants, which Kyrgyzstan relies on, operating below capacity.

The Eurasian Development Bank stated that "constructing new hydroelectric power plants while upgrading existing ones will reduce the effects of climate change".

Costly subsidies

The Kyrgyz government also expects Kambar-Ata-1 to have a positive impact on power plants located further downstream.

The primary one is Toktogul, which accounts for 40 percent of Kyrgyzstan's electricity supply.

A prominent display inside the Toktogul power station is a large mural featuring Soviet leader Vladimir Lenin and his quote: "Communism is Soviet power and the electrification of the entire country".

A century later, the sector remains largely supported by the government, much like it was during Soviet times, in order to prevent social unrest in an economically vulnerable society.

The current tariff we charge is not supported by the actual production costs of electricity. If we maintain this trend, we will likely exhaust our electricity resources within five to ten years. Consequently, we need to construct a new power plant.